The Looming Crisis: Unpacking the Overleveraged Banking System

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the world learned a harsh lesson about the dangers of an overleveraged banking system. Yet, more than a decade later, the situation has not improved; in fact, it has worsened. Today, major banks like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others are playing a risky game with derivatives that far outstrip their actual assets, setting the stage for another potential collapse.

Current State of Overleveraging (Looming Crisis)

Let’s look at the numbers. JP Morgan Chase, one of the largest banks in the United States, holds over $50 trillion in derivatives. That's an astronomical figure, especially when compared to the roughly $3 trillion in assets they hold. This means JP Morgan's derivative exposure is more than 16 times their total assets.

Goldman Sachs, another major player, is not far behind. They have approximately $47 trillion in derivatives, compared to assets of around $1 trillion. This puts Goldman Sachs in a similarly precarious position.

These figures are not just abstract numbers; they represent real risk. Derivatives, essentially complex financial instruments whose value is derived from underlying assets, have become a focal point of financial instability. The more derivatives a bank holds relative to its assets, the more vulnerable it becomes to market volatility and systemic shocks.

Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis (Looming Crisis)

During the 2008 financial crisis, the overleveraging of banks was painfully evident. At that time, banks were heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). These financial instruments were sold as low-risk, high-return investments, backed by mortgages. However, when the housing market collapsed, these securities turned out to be toxic, as the underlying mortgages defaulted.

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs were deeply involved in these instruments. For instance, JP Morgan held substantial amounts of CDOs, which were essentially bundles of mortgages. Similarly, Goldman Sachs was a major player in the MBS market. When the housing market crashed, the value of these securities plummeted, leading to massive losses for the banks.

Current Risks and Future Outlook (Looming Crisis)

Today, derivatives are the new face of these complex financial instruments. While the names have changed, the risks are strikingly similar. Derivatives, like CDOs and MBS before them, are designed to spread risk across the financial system. However, when the underlying assets fail, the entire financial system is at risk.

The implications are dire. If a correction were to occur, the fallout could be catastrophic. The financial system, which is supposed to be the backbone of the economy, has become a house of cards, propped up by increasingly risky and opaque financial instruments.

Conclusion (Looming Crisis)

In conclusion, the banking system is once again teetering on the edge of a precipice creating a looming crisis. The lessons of the past have been ignored, and the bankers who caused the last crisis to have only made the situation worse. The figures speak for themselves: more derivatives, less backing, and an increasingly fragile financial system.

The question remains: will there be an ultimate correction to stabilize these positions that are essentially "cat shit, wrapped in dog shit"? Or are we doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past, with even more devastating consequences? The future of global finance hangs in the balance.

As concerned citizens and consumers, it’s imperative that we demand accountability and transparency from our financial institutions. The stakes are too high to ignore the warning signs of another potential financial meltdown and looming crisis ahead.