_edited.png)
In early 2021, the financial world was rocked by the unprecedented surge in GameStop's stock price, driven primarily by a passionate community of individual investors on platforms like Reddit's r/Superstonk. The popular narrative was that this dramatic rise was the result of a short squeeze, a situation where short sellers are forced to buy back borrowed shares at higher prices, further driving up the stock's price. However, a closer examination reveals that GameStop did not actually experience a true short squeeze. Instead, a complex web of financial instruments and strategies was employed by institutions to conceal the true extent of their short positions.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Retail Investor Activity
To further understand why retail investors were not the primary force behind the price movements, we can look at On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV is a technical analysis indicator that uses volume flow to predict changes in stock price. The idea is that volume precedes price movement; thus, if a stock is being accumulated, the OBV rises, and if it is being sold off, the OBV falls.
Throughout the GameStop saga, the OBV remained relatively stable, indicating that retail investors were holding their positions rather than selling off their shares. If retail investors had been selling, we would have seen a significant drop in the OBV, reflecting selling pressure corresponding with the price fluctuations. The stable OBV suggests that the changes in GameStop's stock price were more likely due to institutional trading activities rather than retail selling.
Hedging with In-The-Money Call Options
To manage their precarious short positions, institutions employed a variety of hedging strategies, including the use of in-the-money (ITM) call options. These options allowed institutions to offset potential losses from their short positions. By exercising ITM call options, they could acquire shares at a predetermined price, mitigating the impact of the rising stock price. This hedging strategy helped institutions endure the initial surge until March 2021, when GameStop's stock experienced another significant increase.
The Role of Swaps in Concealing Short Positions
As the stock price continued to rise and the pressure mounted, institutions began to use swaps more extensively to manage their short positions. Swaps are financial derivatives that allow parties to exchange the benefits of one asset for another. In the case of GameStop, swaps were used to effectively remove borrowed positions from the regulatory data sheets that agencies monitor, creating a misleading picture of the actual short interest in the stock.
Swaps enable one party to transfer their position to another, who then covers the associated fees and margin calls. This arrangement allows the original holder to maintain their short position indefinitely, hoping for a future price decline to mitigate losses. However, this tactic is akin to fighting fire with oil, especially when considering GameStop's recent transformation.
The Evolution of GameStop and the Bear Thesis
GameStop, once seen as a struggling brick-and-mortar retailer, has undergone significant changes that have challenged the validity of the bear thesis against it. Under new leadership and with a shift towards a more robust e-commerce strategy, the company has demonstrated a potential for growth and innovation that contradicts the reasons for shorting the stock in the first place. This evolution has intensified the pressure on those holding substantial short positions.
Interested in learning more about "smart moneys" bear thesis on GameStop?
The Fallout of Swaps and the Hot Potato Scenario
The current holders of these extensive short positions, now masked by swaps, are left in a precarious situation. They must eventually close these shorts, buying back shares at potentially higher prices, which could lead to significant losses and even systematic risk. This dynamic creates a "hot potato" effect, where no one wants to be left holding these untenable positions as the swaps near their expiration.
Questioning the Wisdom of "Smart Money"
The GameStop saga raises a critical question about the nature of "smart money" on Wall Street. Are these institutions truly the astute investors they claim to be, or are they merely fallible entities prone to the same mistakes as the individual investors they often look down upon? The sophisticated strategies employed to disguise short positions suggest a level of desperation and a willingness to bend the rules, revealing a more complex and perhaps less flattering picture of institutional behaviour.
Conclusion
The events surrounding GameStop in 2021 highlight the intricate and often opaque strategies employed by financial institutions to manage and conceal their positions. Rather than a straightforward short squeeze, the situation involved a sophisticated use of swaps to hide the true extent of short interest. This scenario underscores the evolving nature of financial markets and the need for greater transparency and oversight to ensure a fair and equitable playing field for all participants.
Haven't you heard the news? "That Gamestop is a dying brick and mortar video games retail company"... Or so the mainstream media says. Learn more about why the mainstream media constantly blurs the truth.